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Which neighborhoods are likely continue experiencing downward pricing pressure?

by Honeycrisp on March 21, 2010

Perusing The Real Deal’s Data Book is always an interesting experience, and this was no different for the 2010 issue.  Piquing our interest was the section outlining neighborhood inventory versus sales numbers.  Arguably, we should see a correlation between the inventory/sales ratio and the degree of pricing distress per neighborhood.

As an example, the ratio for the Upper West Side was 77%:  797 sales during 2009 versus 616 units on the market at the end of the year, versus 173% for Midtown (606 units available in December versus 350 sales for the year).  When overlaid with the number of new units coming online, this should serve as a decent leading indicator of the pricing pressure each neighborhood will likely face.

The reason we found this particular data combination interesting is because of the context it can provide in ascertaining where there is likely to be additional negotiability in property prices.  Not surprisingly, we see Harlem, Downtown and Midtown as likely to experience continued downward pressure. (They were already some of the hardest hit neighborhoods of 2009.) This is based not just from a supply and demand standpoint, but also from an absolute numbers perspective in terms of the sheer volume of inventory.  Keep in mind that not all of those units submitted, particularly during 2009, actually came on the market least year.

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